Why understanding Las Vegas Odds are important.
It’s important to understand and be able to apply data provided by the sports book out in Las Vegas. They have a critical interest in setting the odds as accurately as possible. Are they right all of the time? Absolutely not. However, they just keep building new hotels and casinos out there. It is critical to incorporate information from the Vegas sports books into your daily fantasy research
The two key pieces of data are the point spread and the over/under.The. The point spread is how many points a team is projected to win or lose by. Take the follow example. Oakland vs. Patriots.
If we were betting on the Patriots they would have to win by 11 or more points for you to win the wager. You will often see the spread with a point .5 to avoid a push. Conversely, if you bet on the Raiders they would have to lose by 9 fewer points or win the game outright for you to win. You could also wager on the money line and bet a team to win outright. But for our purposes today we will just focus on the spread and the over/under.
In this example, the Patriots are the favorite to win by 10 points. The two teams together are projected to score 50 points. Why is this important? This helps us target players on teams that are projected to score lots of points. This also helps us predict possible game flow. How the game might play out. We might predict New England getting out to a lead early and running the ball late. Only it’s the Patriots right. We can never be sure.
On the flip side, David Carr and the Raiders would have to play catch-up and have to throw the ball a lot. This would likely increase the stats of the Raiders receivers and Carr. However, the Raiders run game would suffer. In general, you want to target games with high totals. Additionally, you would want the spread to be lower and the game more competitive forcing both offenses to keep scoring.
Things to keep in mind
According to an excellent article over at Fantasy Labs, the average points per game is approximately 46 points. Games totals over this threshold would be high-scoring. However, please keep in mind that games with low totals should not be overlooked. There are solids plays in almost every game. You just have to do the research. The weather needs to be taken into account as well. High winds, rain, snow affect how the game is played. Watch for any movement in the point spread or totals. This could indicate an injury to a key player and needs to be investigated. Lastly, teams typically play better at home. Particularly bad teams. Check out the previous reference article
from Kelly McCann over at Fantasy Labs for a break on how quarterbacks in low total games perform.